Beauport—Limoilou

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 54%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	Bloc	NDP
Beauport—Limoilou	35.8%	30.8%	28.6%	3.9%
Provincial averageQuebec	43.6%−7.8	24.2%+6.6	27.3%+1.3	5.7%−1.8
National averageCanada	47.0%−11.2	30.4%+0.4	6.3%+22.3	11.8%−7.9

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 96.2% English 0.9% Other languages 2.9%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Steeve Lavoie · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 5.4 points, with 68.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 4.7 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Steeve Lavoie Elected	Liberal	21,858	35.1	Manager
Hugo Langlois	Conservative	18,492	29.7	Host
Julie Vignola	Bloc	17,558	28.2	Teacher
Raymond Côté	NDP	2,095	3.4	Customer Support Agent
Dalila Elhak	Green	924	1.5	Public Servant
Andrée Massicotte	PPC	396	0.6	Purchaser
Claude Moreau	Other	95	0.2	Stationary Engine Mechanic
Other candidates		944	1.5

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.