Québec Centre
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | PPC | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Québec Centre | 48.7% | 34.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+5.2 | 27.3%+7.5 | 1.7%+4.1 | 5.7%−0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+1.7 | 6.3%+28.5 | 2.1%+3.7 | 11.8%−6.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jean-Yves Duclos · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 13.2 points, with 70.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 14.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Yves Duclos Elected | Liberal | 27,880 | 48.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Simon Bérubé | Bloc | 20,203 | 34.8 | International Relations Specialist |
| Tommy Bureau | NDP | 4,400 | 7.6 | Councillor |
| Daniel Brisson | PPC | 2,818 | 4.9 | Business Consultant |
| Patrick Kerr | Independent | 1,018 | 1.8 | Entrepreneur |
| Other candidates | 1,776 | 3.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Louis-Hébert Liberal, safe seat
- Beauport—Limoilou Liberal, toss-up
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Conservative, safe seat
- Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Conservative, safe seat
- Lévis—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
- Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated