Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis | 50.2% | 29.3% | 19.1% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.2%+26.0 | 43.6%−14.3 | 27.3%−8.2 | 5.7%−2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+19.8 | 47.0%−17.7 | 6.3%+12.8 | 11.8%−8.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Dominique Vien · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 17.8 points, with 72.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 21.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique Vien Elected | Conservative | 32,097 | 49.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Glenn O'Farrell | Liberal | 18,642 | 28.5 | Administrator |
| Gaby Breton | Bloc | 12,244 | 18.7 | Humanitarian and Partnership Director |
| Marie-Philippe Gagnon Gauthier | NDP | 1,621 | 2.5 | Communications Advisor |
| Mario Fréchette | PPC | 794 | 1.2 | Software Architecture Consultant |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Beauce Conservative, safe seat
- Beauport—Limoilou Liberal, toss-up
- Québec Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Lévis—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
- Louis-Hébert Liberal, safe seat
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated