Lévis—Lotbinière
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lévis—Lotbinière | 48.2% | 29.8% | 19.7% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.2%+24.0 | 43.6%−13.8 | 27.3%−7.6 | 5.7%−2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+17.8 | 47.0%−17.2 | 6.3%+13.4 | 11.8%−8.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jacques Gourde · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 18.1 points, with 76.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 18.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacques Gourde Elected | Conservative | 33,312 | 47.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Ghislain Daigle | Liberal | 20,549 | 29.1 | Master Engineer |
| Pierre Julien | Bloc | 13,627 | 19.3 | Miller |
| Molly Cornish | NDP | 1,635 | 2.3 | University Student |
| Pier-Olivier Roy | PPC | 698 | 1.0 | Server |
| Other candidates | 905 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Louis-Hébert Liberal, safe seat
- Québec Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Conservative, safe seat
- Beauport—Limoilou Liberal, toss-up
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Conservative, safe seat
- Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated