Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles | 43.0% | 34.9% | 19.0% | 3.8% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.2%+18.8 | 43.6%−8.7 | 27.3%−8.2 | 5.7%−1.9 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+12.6 | 47.0%−12.1 | 6.3%+12.7 | 11.8%−8.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Pierre Paul-Hus · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 7.7 points, with 73.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 8.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Paul-Hus Elected | Conservative | 27,698 | 41.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Louis Bellemare | Liberal | 22,597 | 34.1 | Economist |
| Bladimir Laborit Infante | Bloc | 12,346 | 18.6 | Travel Agent |
| Dominique Harrisson | NDP | 1,752 | 2.6 | Student |
| Paul Cyr | PPC | 516 | 0.8 | Self-Employed Renovation Contractor |
| Danick Bisson | Independent | 357 | 0.5 | Student |
| Other candidates | 934 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Conservative, safe seat
- Beauport—Limoilou Liberal, toss-up
- Québec Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Louis-Hébert Liberal, safe seat
- Lévis—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
- Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated