Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier | 50.1% | 29.5% | 18.1% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.2%+25.9 | 43.6%−14.1 | 27.3%−9.2 | 5.7%−2.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+19.7 | 47.0%−17.5 | 6.3%+11.8 | 11.8%−8.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Joël Godin · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 20.3 points, with 74.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 20.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joël Godin Elected | Conservative | 32,184 | 49.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Antonin Leroux | Liberal | 18,865 | 28.7 | Underwriter |
| Christian Hébert | Bloc | 11,606 | 17.7 | Farmer |
| Félix Couture | NDP | 1,034 | 1.6 | Student |
| Johann Queffelec | Green | 728 | 1.1 | Arborist |
| Simon Frenette | PPC | 524 | 0.8 | Subway Operator |
| Other candidates | 741 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Conservative, safe seat
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Conservative, safe seat
- Louis-Hébert Liberal, safe seat
- Québec Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Beauport—Limoilou Liberal, toss-up
- Lévis—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated