Louis-Hébert
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis-Hébert | 55.5% | 21.9% | 21.1% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+12.0 | 24.2%−2.3 | 27.3%−6.2 | 5.7%−2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+8.5 | 30.4%−8.5 | 6.3%+14.8 | 11.8%−8.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Joël Lightbound · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 33.7 points, with 76.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 33.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joël Lightbound Elected | Liberal | 33,512 | 54.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Valérie Savard | Bloc | 12,897 | 21.1 | Political Attaché |
| Claude Dussault | Conservative | 12,164 | 19.9 | Management Consultant |
| Jean-Paul Lussiaà-Berdou | NDP | 1,540 | 2.5 | Retired Public Servant |
| Vatthana Maholy | PPC | 332 | 0.5 | Financial Security Advisor |
| Other candidates | 731 | 1.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Québec Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Louis-Saint-Laurent—Akiawenhrahk Conservative, safe seat
- Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles Conservative, safe seat
- Beauport—Limoilou Liberal, toss-up
- Lévis—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
- Portneuf—Jacques-Cartier Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated