Beauce
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beauce | 59.9% | 19.6% | 13.8% | 6.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.2%+35.7 | 43.6%−23.9 | 27.3%−13.5 | 1.7%+4.9 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+29.5 | 47.0%−27.4 | 6.3%+7.5 | 2.1%+4.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jason Groleau · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 40.0 points, with 71.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 40.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Groleau Elected | Conservative | 37,604 | 58.8 | Entrepreneur |
| Maryelle-Henriette Doumbia | Liberal | 12,057 | 18.9 | IT Analyst |
| Gaétan Mathieu | Bloc | 8,595 | 13.4 | Retired |
| Maxime Bernier | PPC | 3,626 | 5.7 | Political Party Leader |
| Annabelle Lafond-Poirier | NDP | 1,100 | 1.7 | Medical Doctor |
| Other candidates | 960 | 1.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bellechasse—Les Etchemins—Lévis Conservative, safe seat
- Mégantic—L'Érable—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
- Lévis—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
- Québec Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Louis-Hébert Liberal, safe seat
- Beauport—Limoilou Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated