Mégantic—L'Érable—Lotbinière
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mégantic—L'Érable—Lotbinière | 59.9% | 22.2% | 16.8% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.2%+35.7 | 43.6%−21.3 | 27.3%−10.5 | 5.7%−2.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+29.5 | 47.0%−24.8 | 6.3%+10.5 | 11.8%−8.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Luc Berthold · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 36.7 points, with 70.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 37.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luc Berthold Elected | Conservative | 34,470 | 58.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Charles Mckaig | Liberal | 12,594 | 21.5 | Field Organizer |
| Réjean Hurteau | Bloc | 9,607 | 16.4 | Retired |
| Gabriel D'Astous | NDP | 1,066 | 1.8 | Student |
| Marek Spacek | PPC | 717 | 1.2 | Self-Employed |
| Yves Gilbert | Other | 181 | 0.3 | Marine Electrical Engineer |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Richmond—Arthabaska Conservative, toss-up
- Beauce Conservative, safe seat
- Compton—Stanstead Liberal, safe seat
- Lévis—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
- Sherbrooke Liberal, safe seat
- Drummond Bloc, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated