Richmond—Arthabaska
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 91%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond—Arthabaska | 36.0% | 33.1% | 27.2% | 3.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.2%+11.8 | 43.6%−10.4 | 27.3%−0.1 | 5.7%−2.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+5.6 | 47.0%−13.9 | 6.3%+20.9 | 11.8%−8.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Eric Lefebvre · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 2.5 points, with 70.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 2.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Éric Lefebvre Elected | Conservative | 22,206 | 34.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Alain Saint-Pierre | Liberal | 20,629 | 32.4 | Business Development Director |
| Daniel Lebel | Bloc | 17,095 | 26.8 | Engineer |
| Nataël Bureau | NDP | 1,248 | 2.0 | Data Analyst |
| Philippe D'Arcangeli | PPC | 707 | 1.1 | Paralegal |
| Réal Batrhino Martel | Other | 438 | 0.7 | Public Transit Driver |
| Henri Donascimento | Independent | 223 | 0.3 | Student |
| Other candidates | 1,173 | 1.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mégantic—L'Érable—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
- Sherbrooke Liberal, safe seat
- Drummond Bloc, safe seat
- Compton—Stanstead Liberal, safe seat
- Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak Bloc, safe seat
- Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton Bloc, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated