Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Bloc | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak | 46.5% | 27.5% | 22.3% | 5.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.3%+19.3 | 43.6%−16.0 | 24.2%−1.9 | 5.7%−0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 6.3%+40.2 | 47.0%−19.5 | 30.4%−8.1 | 11.8%−6.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Louis Plamondon · Bloc
Previous election (2025)
The Bloc Québécois won by 19.3 points, with 67.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 19.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Plamondon Elected | Bloc | 25,506 | 46.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Pierre Tousignant | Liberal | 14,813 | 26.8 | Emergency Measures Consultant |
| Michel Plourde | Conservative | 11,717 | 21.2 | Certified Engineering Technologist |
| Tommy Gagnon | NDP | 1,112 | 2.0 | Automotive Chief Financial Officer |
| Yanick Lapierre | Green | 738 | 1.3 | General Manager |
| Lara Stillo | PPC | 432 | 0.8 | Residential Real Estate Broker |
| Other candidates | 974 | 1.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Trois-Rivières Liberal, safe seat
- Drummond Bloc, safe seat
- Berthier—Maskinongé Bloc, competitive
- Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton Bloc, safe seat
- Richmond—Arthabaska Conservative, toss-up
- Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Bloc, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated