Berthier—Maskinongé

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.9 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 24%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Bloc	Liberal	NDP	Conservative
Berthier—Maskinongé	34.8%	27.9%	24.5%	18.0%
Provincial averageQuebec	27.3%+7.6	43.6%−15.7	5.7%+18.8	24.2%−6.2
National averageCanada	6.3%+28.5	47.0%−19.1	11.8%+12.7	30.4%−12.4

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 98.7% English 0.8% Other languages 0.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Yves Perron · Bloc

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Bloc Québécois won by 10.5 points, with 68.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 6.9 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Yves Perron Elected	Bloc	21,676	34.4	Teacher
Stéphane Bilodeau	Liberal	15,056	23.9	Residential Real Estate Broker
Ruth Ellen Brosseau	NDP	13,457	21.4	Farmer
Peter Saliba	Conservative	10,641	16.9	Video Producer
Elia Gomez-Gnali	PPC	575	0.9	Property and Casualty Insurance Broker
Daniel Simon	Green	551	0.9	Chief Executive Officer
Other candidates		982	1.6

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.