Trois-Rivières
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trois-Rivières | 41.1% | 27.9% | 27.6% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%−2.5 | 24.2%+3.7 | 27.3%+0.3 | 5.7%−2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−5.9 | 30.4%−2.5 | 6.3%+21.3 | 11.8%−8.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Caroline Desrochers · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 13.2 points, with 68.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 12.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caroline Desrochers Elected | Liberal | 25,147 | 40.3 | Public Servant |
| René Villemure | Bloc | 16,921 | 27.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Yves Levesque | Conservative | 16,708 | 26.8 | Merchant Navy Captain |
| Matthew Sévigny | NDP | 1,437 | 2.3 | Student |
| David Turcotte | Green | 569 | 0.9 | Compensation Officer |
| Yan Patry | PPC | 320 | 0.5 | Manager |
| Mathieu Doyon | Other | 215 | 0.3 | Peace Officer |
| Other candidates | 1,052 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Bécancour—Nicolet—Saurel—Alnôbak Bloc, safe seat
- Berthier—Maskinongé Bloc, competitive
- Drummond Bloc, safe seat
- Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton Bloc, safe seat
- Richmond—Arthabaska Conservative, toss-up
- Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Bloc, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated