Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

In the by-election, our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a 70% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.8 points.

The by-election

Favourite

Bloc

70% chance of winning

Seat vacant, polling day not yet set
Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay is leaving
Average lead: 5.8 points

Projected vote share

Bloc 38.1%

Liberal 34.7%

Conservative 17.8%

NDP 5.6%

Green 2.1%

Why the by-election and the general election differ

The Bloc Québécois leads in both cases.

Further down, the projection assumes a general election, with every seat voting on the same day. Fewer people vote in a by-election, and the least motivated supporters are the ones who stay home, so the favourite can change.

Full by-election forecast

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Bloc 43.5%
Liberal 33.8%
Conservative 18.8%
NDP 5.4%
Green 2.1%
PPC 1.7%

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

Compared with the average

	Bloc	Liberal	Conservative	NDP
Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton	43.5%	33.8%	18.8%	5.4%
Provincial averageQuebec	27.3%+16.2	43.6%−9.8	24.2%−5.4	5.7%−0.3
National averageCanada	6.3%+37.2	47.0%−13.2	30.4%−11.6	11.8%−6.4

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Language spoken most often at home	French 96.8% English 0.7% Other languages 2.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Current member

Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay · Independent

Elected as Bloc; changed party on May 28, 2026. In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

Previous election (2025)

The Bloc Québécois won by 10.1 points, with 69.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 9.7 points.

Candidates and votes in 2025

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay Elected	Bloc	25,447	43.1	Parliamentarian
Mélanie Bédard	Liberal	19,504	33.0	Major Accounts Manager
Gaëtan Deschênes	Conservative	10,431	17.7	Businessman
Raymonde Plamondon	NDP	1,373	2.3	Retired
Martin Grenier	Green	800	1.4	Talent Acquisition Consultant
Sylvain Pariseau	PPC	431	0.7	Aerospace Structure Assembler
Other candidates		1,069	1.8

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Shefford Bloc, toss-up
Drummond Bloc, safe seat
Beloeil—Chambly Bloc, safe seat
Pierre-Boucher—Les Patriotes—Verchères Bloc, competitive
Mont-Saint-Bruno—L'Acadie Liberal, safe seat
Brome—Missisquoi Liberal, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026