Shefford

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a 57% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.3 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 92%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Bloc	Liberal	Conservative	NDP
Shefford	39.8%	39.3%	17.9%	5.4%
Provincial averageQuebec	27.3%+12.5	43.6%−4.2	24.2%−6.2	5.7%−0.3
National averageCanada	6.3%+33.5	47.0%−7.7	30.4%−12.5	11.8%−6.4

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 95.5% English 2.6% Other languages 1.9%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Andréanne Larouche · Bloc

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Bloc Québécois won by 0.8 points, with 70.3% turnout.

Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 2.3 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Andréanne Larouche Elected	Bloc	26,726	39.4	Parliamentarian
Felix Dionne	Liberal	26,155	38.6	Businessman
James Seale	Conservative	11,404	16.8	Accountant
Patrick Jasmin	NDP	1,557	2.3	Communications Advisor
Susanne Lefebvre	PPC	789	1.2	Organic Food Business
Other candidates		1,150	1.7

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.