Saint-Jean
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 5%.
Compared with the average
| Bloc | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saint-Jean | 43.9% | 34.4% | 17.2% | 5.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.3%+16.7 | 43.6%−9.1 | 24.2%−7.0 | 5.7%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 6.3%+37.6 | 47.0%−12.6 | 30.4%−13.2 | 11.8%−6.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Christine Normandin · Bloc
Previous election (2025)
The Bloc Québécois won by 9.9 points, with 69.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 9.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christine Normandin Elected | Bloc | 28,474 | 43.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Patrick Agbokou | Liberal | 21,999 | 33.7 | Administrator |
| Marie Louis-Seize | Conservative | 10,480 | 16.0 | Retired |
| Danielle Dubuc | NDP | 1,650 | 2.5 | Retired |
| Vincent Piette | Green | 988 | 1.5 | Flight Service Director (Flight Attendant) |
| Tchad Deschenes | PPC | 624 | 1.0 | Representative |
| Other candidates | 1,137 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- La Prairie—Atateken Liberal, safe seat
- Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville Liberal, safe seat
- Beloeil—Chambly Bloc, safe seat
- Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne Liberal, safe seat
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert Liberal, safe seat
- Mont-Saint-Bruno—L'Acadie Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated