Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Châteauguay—Les Jardins-de-Napierville | 45.9% | 29.1% | 24.3% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+2.4 | 27.3%+1.8 | 24.2%+0.1 | 5.7%−2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−1.1 | 6.3%+22.8 | 30.4%−6.1 | 11.8%−8.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Nathalie Provost · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 15.9 points, with 69.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 16.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathalie Provost Elected | Liberal | 28,224 | 45.2 | Public Servant |
| Patrick O'Hara | Bloc | 18,160 | 29.1 | Manager |
| David De Repentigny | Conservative | 13,538 | 21.7 | Border Services Officer |
| Hannah Wolker | NDP | 1,377 | 2.2 | Home Care Worker |
| Martine Desrochers | Green | 773 | 1.2 | Executive Assistant |
| Nicolas Guérin | PPC | 429 | 0.7 | Engineer |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- La Prairie—Atateken Liberal, safe seat
- LaSalle—Émard—Verdun Liberal, safe seat
- Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle Liberal, safe seat
- Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount Liberal, safe seat
- Ville-Marie—Le Sud-Ouest—Île-des-Soeurs Liberal, safe seat
- Brossard—Saint-Lambert Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated