Compton—Stanstead
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compton—Stanstead | 45.8% | 26.0% | 23.7% | 3.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+2.3 | 27.3%−1.3 | 24.2%−0.5 | 5.7%−1.8 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−1.2 | 6.3%+19.7 | 30.4%−6.7 | 11.8%−7.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Marianne Dandurand · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 19.0 points, with 71.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 19.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marianne Dandurand Elected | Liberal | 29,951 | 45.1 | Chief of Staff |
| Nathalie Bresse | Bloc | 17,305 | 26.0 | Mayor |
| Jacques Painchaud | Conservative | 14,292 | 21.5 | Retired Sureté du Québec Police Officer |
| Valérie Laliberté | NDP | 2,124 | 3.2 | Public Servant |
| Sébastien Tremblay | Green | 1,161 | 1.7 | Teacher |
| Paul Lehmann | PPC | 787 | 1.2 | Entrepreneur |
| Other candidates | 849 | 1.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sherbrooke Liberal, safe seat
- Richmond—Arthabaska Conservative, toss-up
- Mégantic—L'Érable—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
- Brome—Missisquoi Liberal, safe seat
- Shefford Bloc, toss-up
- Drummond Bloc, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated