Sherbrooke
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 25.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Bloc | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sherbrooke | 51.3% | 26.3% | 14.9% | 4.5% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+7.8 | 27.3%−1.0 | 24.2%−9.2 | 5.7%−1.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+4.3 | 6.3%+20.0 | 30.4%−15.5 | 11.8%−7.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Élisabeth Brière · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 24.3 points, with 67.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 25.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Élisabeth Brière Elected | Liberal | 31,249 | 50.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Pierre-Étienne Rouillard | Bloc | 16,224 | 26.3 | Comedian |
| Esteban Méndez-Hord | Conservative | 7,983 | 12.9 | Customer Service Advisor |
| Jean-Pierre Fortier | NDP | 3,516 | 5.7 | Engineer |
| Kevin McKenna | Green | 1,383 | 2.2 | Retired |
| Alexandre Lépine | PPC | 576 | 0.9 | Plant Manager |
| Other candidates | 850 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Compton—Stanstead Liberal, safe seat
- Richmond—Arthabaska Conservative, toss-up
- Brome—Missisquoi Liberal, safe seat
- Shefford Bloc, toss-up
- Drummond Bloc, safe seat
- Mégantic—L'Érable—Lotbinière Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated