Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 74% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt | 40.8% | 39.8% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−7.8 | 34.4%+5.4 | 5.4%−0.5 | 1.8%−0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−6.2 | 30.4%+9.4 | 11.8%−6.9 | 2.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jim Bélanger · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 6.7 points, with 70.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Belanger Elected | Conservative | 29,156 | 48.0 | Self-Employed |
| Marc G. Serré | Liberal | 25,075 | 41.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Andréane Chénier | NDP | 4,822 | 7.9 | Occupational Health and Safety Specialist |
| Sharilynne St. Louis | PPC | 489 | 0.8 | Realtor |
| Himal Hossain | Green | 465 | 0.8 | Human Resources Generalist |
| Justin Dean Newell Leroux | Other | 316 | 0.5 | Systems Engineer |
| Other candidates | 368 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sudbury Liberal, safe seat
- Nipissing—Timiskaming Liberal, safe seat
- Parry Sound—Muskoka Conservative, toss-up
- Abitibi—Témiscamingue Bloc, safe seat
- Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Conservative, toss-up
- Simcoe North Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated