Sudbury
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sudbury | 50.9% | 30.6% | 4.8% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+2.3 | 34.4%−3.8 | 5.4%−0.6 | 1.8%+0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+3.9 | 30.4%+0.2 | 11.8%−7.0 | 2.1%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Viviane Lapointe · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 12.6 points, with 69.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 20.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viviane Lapointe Elected | Liberal | 31,551 | 51.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Ian Symington | Conservative | 23,835 | 38.8 | Physician |
| Nadia Verrelli | NDP | 4,680 | 7.6 | University Professor |
| Nicholas Bonderoff | PPC | 773 | 1.3 | Mining Engineer |
| Other candidates | 520 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Liberal, toss-up
- Nipissing—Timiskaming Liberal, safe seat
- Parry Sound—Muskoka Conservative, toss-up
- Abitibi—Témiscamingue Bloc, safe seat
- Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Conservative, toss-up
- Simcoe North Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated