Parry Sound—Muskoka

Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario

Forecast of October 15, 2026

In the by-election, our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 80% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.6 points.

The by-election

Favourite

Liberal

80% chance of winning

Departure announced, seat not yet vacant
Scott Aitchison is leaving
Average lead: 6.6 points

Projected vote share

Liberal 49.4%

Conservative 44.0%

PPC 3.0%

NDP 2.9%

Why the by-election and the general election differ

In a general election, the Conservative Party would lead; in the by-election, the Liberal Party.

Further down, the projection assumes a general election, with every seat voting on the same day. Fewer people vote in a by-election, and the least motivated supporters are the ones who stay home, so the favourite can change.

Full by-election forecast

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Conservative 42.7%
Liberal 41.8%
NDP 3.2%
PPC 2.8%
Green 0.6%

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

Compared with the average

	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	PPC
Parry Sound—Muskoka	42.7%	41.8%	3.2%	2.8%
Provincial averageOntario	34.4%+8.3	48.6%−6.8	5.4%−2.2	1.8%+0.9
National averageCanada	30.4%+12.3	47.0%−5.2	11.8%−8.6	2.1%+0.6

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.2% English 98.7% Other languages 1.1%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Current member

Scott Aitchison · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

Previous election (2025)

The Conservative Party won by 9.5 points, with 71.4% turnout.

Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 1.5 points.

Candidates and votes in 2025

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Scott Aitchison Elected	Conservative	33,742	51.9	Parliamentarian
Geordie Sabbagh	Liberal	27,563	42.4	Filmmaker
Heather Hay	NDP	2,300	3.5	Coodinator, Elder Abuse Prevention Muskoka
Isabel Pereira	PPC	1,048	1.6	Retired
Other candidates		348	0.5

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Simcoe North Liberal, toss-up
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Liberal, toss-up
Simcoe—Grey Liberal, toss-up
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Conservative, toss-up
Barrie South—Innisfil Conservative, safe seat
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Conservative, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026