Parry Sound—Muskoka
Federal by-election · Ontario · departure announced
Parry Sound–Muskoka
Scott Aitchison remains the Conservative MP. His announced departure will lead to a by-election once the seat becomes vacant and a writ is issued.
Resignation announced · seat not yet vacant
The Vote-Scope forecast
Projected vote share (10th–90th percentile, median marked)
The estimate uses the current federal riding projection and the model’s by-election turnout adjustment. It includes no local poll and no estimate of Aitchison’s personal vote. Candidate announcements and local polls may change the outlook.
How this projection is built
By-election turnout residual
Measured on April 13, 2026: at equal national swing, the Conservative vote fell about 3 points further and the Liberal vote rose by about as much. Opposition voters stay home; government voters turn out.
Conservative -2.8 · Liberal +3.1
2025 result — the seat as it was won
Why this by-election exists
- On September 30, 2026, Scott Aitchison announced that he would resign after the fall parliamentary session.
- The seat is not yet vacant. No by-election date or new candidate has been confirmed.
No polling day yet
Under the Canada Elections Act the writ must issue between 11 and 180 days after the Speaker notifies the Chief Electoral Officer of the vacancy.
Sources