Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes | 47.0% | 37.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+12.6 | 48.6%−10.7 | 5.4%−2.2 | 1.8%+0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+16.6 | 47.0%−9.1 | 11.8%−8.6 | 2.1%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jamie Schmale · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 17.7 points, with 72.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 9.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Schmale Elected | Conservative | 42,701 | 56.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Nell Thomas | Liberal | 29,223 | 38.5 | Family Physician |
| Alyea Teel | NDP | 2,625 | 3.5 | Student |
| Michael Penman | PPC | 954 | 1.3 | Propery Management |
| Other candidates | 450 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Peterborough Liberal, safe seat
- York—Durham Conservative, safe seat
- Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Conservative, toss-up
- Northumberland—Clarke Liberal, toss-up
- Bowmanville—Oshawa North Liberal, toss-up
- Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated