Peterborough
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterborough | 53.5% | 32.7% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+4.9 | 34.4%−1.8 | 5.4%−1.7 | 1.8%−0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+6.5 | 30.4%+2.3 | 11.8%−8.1 | 2.1%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Emma Harrison · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 13.2 points, with 74.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 20.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Harrison Elected | Liberal | 42,890 | 54.0 | Farmer |
| Michelle Ferreri | Conservative | 32,446 | 40.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Heather Ray | NDP | 2,406 | 3.0 | Director of Operations |
| Jazmine Raine | Green | 655 | 0.8 | PhD Student |
| Jami-Leigh McMaster | PPC | 272 | 0.3 | Self-Employed |
| Chad Jewell | Independent | 222 | 0.3 | Business Owner |
| Matthew Grove | Other | 168 | 0.2 | Courier |
| Other candidates | 308 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Northumberland—Clarke Liberal, toss-up
- Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Conservative, safe seat
- Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Conservative, toss-up
- Bowmanville—Oshawa North Liberal, toss-up
- Bay of Quinte Liberal, safe seat
- York—Durham Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated