Northumberland—Clarke

Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 36%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Northumberland—Clarke	45.0%	39.6%	3.1%	1.9%
Provincial averageOntario	48.6%−3.5	34.4%+5.1	5.4%−2.3	1.8%
National averageCanada	47.0%−2.0	30.4%+9.1	11.8%−8.7	2.1%−0.2

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.3% English 98.2% Other languages 1.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Philip Lawrence · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 3.1 points, with 75.0% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 5.5 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Philip Lawrence Elected	Conservative	34,862	48.8	Parliamentarian
John Goheen	Liberal	32,648	45.7	Educator
Ava Becker	NDP	2,090	2.9	Student
Christina Marie Wilson	Green	630	0.9	Teacher
Lisa Bradburn	PPC	521	0.7	Psychotherapist
Jody Ledgerwood	Independent	270	0.4	Real Estate Broker
John Wesselius	Other	171	0.2	Retired
Other candidates		320	0.4

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.