Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 46%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga | 44.8% | 39.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+10.4 | 48.6%−9.1 | 5.4%−2.2 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+14.4 | 47.0%−7.5 | 11.8%−8.6 | 2.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Shelby Kramp-Neuman · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 13.9 points, with 71.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 5.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shelby Kramp-Neuman Elected | Conservative | 36,005 | 54.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Tracey Sweeney Schenk | Liberal | 26,745 | 40.1 | Realtor |
| Ava Duffy | NDP | 2,351 | 3.5 | Homemaker |
| Michael Holbrook | Green | 803 | 1.2 | Contractor |
| Zaid Yusufani | PPC | 377 | 0.6 | Psychotherapist |
| Other candidates | 358 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Peterborough Liberal, safe seat
- Lanark—Frontenac Liberal, toss-up
- Northumberland—Clarke Liberal, toss-up
- Bay of Quinte Liberal, safe seat
- Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Conservative, safe seat
- Kingston and the Islands Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated