Kingston and the Islands
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston and the Islands | 62.3% | 22.3% | 4.1% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+13.7 | 34.4%−12.2 | 5.4%−1.3 | 1.8%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+15.3 | 30.4%−8.1 | 11.8%−7.7 | 2.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Mark Gerretsen · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 32.4 points, with 71.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 40.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Gerretsen Elected | Liberal | 48,682 | 62.9 | Parliamentarian |
| Bryan Paterson | Conservative | 23,592 | 30.5 | Professor |
| Daria Juüdi-Hope | NDP | 3,648 | 4.7 | Registered Nurse |
| Fintan Hartnett | Green | 1,071 | 1.4 | Sailor |
| Other candidates | 427 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Liberal, toss-up
- Bay of Quinte Liberal, safe seat
- Lanark—Frontenac Liberal, toss-up
- Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Conservative, toss-up
- Carleton Liberal, safe seat
- Northumberland—Clarke Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated