Carleton
Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carleton | 50.0% | 36.2% | 2.8% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+1.4 | 34.4%+1.8 | 5.4%−2.6 | 1.8%−0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+3.0 | 30.4%+5.8 | 11.8%−9.0 | 2.4%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Bruce Fanjoy · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 5.2 points, with 81.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 13.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Fanjoy Elected | Liberal | 43,846 | 50.6 | Retired |
| Pierre Poilievre | Conservative | 39,333 | 45.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Beth Prokaska | NDP | 1,221 | 1.4 | Retired Teacher |
| Mark Watson | Green | 561 | 0.6 | Entrepreneur |
| Karen Bourdeau | Other | 112 | 0.1 | Administrator |
| Shawn MacEachern | Other | 63 | 0.1 | Senior Manager Personnel Support |
| Lorant Polya | Independent | 57 | 0.1 | Software Developer |
| Scott Falkingham | Independent | 45 | 0.1 | Software Developer |
| Sana Ahmad | Independent | 41 | 0.0 | Organizer |
| Pierre Gauthier | Independent | 38 | 0.0 | Accounting Technician |
| Guillaume Paradis | Independent | 37 | 0.0 | IT Analyst |
| Danny Légaré | Other | 37 | 0.0 | Web Designer |
| Dan Kyung | Independent | 35 | 0.0 | Software Engineer |
| Sébastien CoRhino | Other | 31 | 0.0 | Inventor |
| Sarah Burke | Independent | 27 | 0.0 | Electrical Engineer |
| Mark Moutter | Independent | 23 | 0.0 | Student |
| David Zhu | Independent | 21 | 0.0 | Software Architect |
| Charlie Currie | Independent | 20 | 0.0 | Stand-up Comic and Comedy Writer |
| John Dale | Independent | 20 | 0.0 | PhD Student |
| Euan Fraser Tait | Independent | 18 | 0.0 | Psychotherapist |
| John Boylan | Independent | 17 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Mélodie Anderson | Independent | 16 | 0.0 | Small-Scale Farmer |
| Alex Banks | Independent | 16 | 0.0 | Instrumentation and Control Technician |
| Michael Bednarski | Independent | 15 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| David Nguyen | Independent | 15 | 0.0 | Video Game Developer |
| Sophie Bearden | Independent | 14 | 0.0 | Project Coordinator |
| Seyed Hosseini Lavasani | Independent | 13 | 0.0 | Mathematician |
| Darcy Vanderwater | Independent | 12 | 0.0 | Student |
| Jeani Boudreault | Independent | 12 | 0.0 | Social Work |
| Alexandra Engering | Independent | 12 | 0.0 | Forest School Educator |
| Lajos Polya | Independent | 12 | 0.0 | Software Developer |
| Donald McKay | Independent | 11 | 0.0 | Retired |
| Jenny Cartwright | Independent | 11 | 0.0 | Documentary Filmmaker |
| Jeffrey Goodman | Independent | 11 | 0.0 | Retired Financial Planner |
| Daniel Stuckless | Independent | 11 | 0.0 | Academic |
| Laina Kohler | Independent | 10 | 0.0 | Product Engineer |
| Charles Lemieux | Independent | 10 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Maria Gabriel | Independent | 10 | 0.0 | Personal Support Worker |
| Sarah Thompson | Independent | 9 | 0.0 | Adult Educator |
| Ryan Huard | Independent | 9 | 0.0 | Security Firmware Engineer |
| Marthalee Aykroyd | Independent | 9 | 0.0 | Retired |
| Andrea Hollinger | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Student |
| Robert Harris | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Unemployed |
| Connie Lukawski | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Software Developer |
| Alain Bourgault | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Retired |
| John Francis O'Flynn | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Daniel Gagnon | Independent | 8 | 0.0 | Computer Scientist |
| Julian Selody | Independent | 7 | 0.0 | Musician |
| Peter Gorman | Independent | 7 | 0.0 | Librarian |
| Michal Wieczorek | Independent | 7 | 0.0 | Data Scientist |
| Line Bélanger | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | Retired |
| Alexander Lein | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | General Manager |
| Agnieszka Marszalek | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Loren Hicks | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | Retired |
| Hakim Sheriff | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | Embedded Systems Developer |
| Blake Hamilton | Independent | 6 | 0.0 | Administrative Services Management |
| Kevin Krisa | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Hydronic Heating Inside Sales |
| Winston Neutel | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Writer |
| Alain Lamontagne | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Retired |
| David Cherniak | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Producer |
| Lény Painchaud | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Labourer |
| Tetia Bayoro | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Logistics Manager |
| Elliot Wand | Independent | 5 | 0.0 | Merchandiser |
| Jaël Champagne Gareau | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Postdoctoral Researcher |
| Spencer Rocchi | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Gerrit Dogger | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Project Manager |
| Gregory Gillis | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Secondary School Teacher |
| Lanna Palsson | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Support Person |
| Patrick Strzalkowski | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Ecologist |
| Dante Camarena Jimenez | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Game Developer |
| Christopher Navarro-Canseco | Independent | 4 | 0.0 | Student |
| Samuel Lafontaine | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Teacher |
| Kerri Hildebrandt | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Engineer |
| Michael Skirzynski | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Business Development Manager |
| Krzysztof Krzywinski | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Student |
| Julie St-Amand | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Public Servant |
| Manon Marie Lili Desbiens | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Communications Manager |
| Trevor Holsworth | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Manager |
| Yogo Shimada | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Customer Support Agent |
| Roger Sherwood | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | Research and Development Scientist |
| Artem Gudkov | Independent | 3 | 0.0 | IT Consultant |
| Pascal St-Amand | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Municipal Public Servant |
| Anthony Hamel | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Student |
| Sheri Oberman | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Retired |
| Demetrios Karavas | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | IT Manager |
| Benjamin Teichman | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Software Engineer |
| Zornitsa Halacheva | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Bookbinder |
| Wallace Richard Rowat | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Computer Consultant |
| Daniel Graham | Independent | 2 | 0.0 | Porter |
| Joseph Maw | Independent | 1 | 0.0 | Painter |
| Ysack Dupont | Independent | 0 | 0.0 | Driver |
| Other candidates | 592 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kanata Liberal, safe seat
- Nepean Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Hull—Aylmer Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa South Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated