Ottawa West—Nepean
Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 45.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa West—Nepean | 63.1% | 18.1% | 5.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+14.5 | 34.4%−16.3 | 5.4%+0.4 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+16.1 | 30.4%−12.3 | 11.8%−6.1 | 2.1%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Anita Vandenbeld · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 36.3 points, with 72.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 45.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anita Vandenbeld Elected | Liberal | 43,555 | 63.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Ryan Telford | Conservative | 18,517 | 26.9 | Public Servant |
| Josh Bizjak | NDP | 4,847 | 7.0 | Executive Director |
| Prashanta Dhakal | Green | 780 | 1.1 | Software Developer |
| Glen Armstrong | PPC | 514 | 0.7 | Teacher |
| Sean Mulligan | Other | 232 | 0.3 | Political Candidate |
| Other candidates | 493 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Hull—Aylmer Liberal, safe seat
- Nepean Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa South Liberal, safe seat
- Kanata Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated