Ottawa Centre
Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 43.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa Centre | 62.6% | 19.1% | 6.9% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+14.1 | 5.4%+13.7 | 34.4%−27.6 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+15.6 | 11.8%+7.3 | 30.4%−23.5 | 2.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Yasir Naqvi · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 42.8 points, with 77.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 43.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yasir Naqvi Elected | Liberal | 51,026 | 62.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Joel Harden | NDP | 15,935 | 19.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Paul D'Orsonnens | Conservative | 12,692 | 15.6 | Director, Employment and Social Development Canada |
| Amanda Rosenstock | Green | 916 | 1.1 | Policy Analyst |
| Andrea Chabot | Other | 268 | 0.3 | Program Manager |
| Marie-Chantal Leriche | Other | 234 | 0.3 | Natural Health |
| Cashton Perry | Other | 154 | 0.2 | Assembly Worker |
| Mike Salmon | Independent | 66 | 0.1 | Customer Service |
| Zed Chebib | Independent | 47 | 0.1 | Retired, Construction |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hull—Aylmer Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa South Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Liberal, safe seat
- Nepean Liberal, safe seat
- Gatineau Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated