Nepean
Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 39.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nepean | 63.3% | 24.3% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+14.7 | 34.4%−10.1 | 5.4%−0.9 | 1.8%−0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+16.3 | 30.4%−6.1 | 11.8%−7.3 | 2.1%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Mark Carney · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 30.4 points, with 77.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 39.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney Elected | Liberal | 46,073 | 63.4 | Prime Minister of Canada |
| Barbara Bal | Conservative | 24,017 | 33.1 | Police Officer |
| Shyam Shukla | NDP | 1,424 | 2.0 | IT Team Leader |
| Greg Hopkins | Green | 462 | 0.6 | Child and Youth Counsellor |
| Eric Fleury | PPC | 261 | 0.4 | Small Business Owner |
| Other candidates | 422 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa West—Nepean Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa South Liberal, safe seat
- Carleton Liberal, safe seat
- Hull—Aylmer Liberal, safe seat
- Kanata Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated