Kanata
Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanata | 60.3% | 26.7% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+11.7 | 34.4%−7.7 | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+13.3 | 30.4%−3.7 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jenna Sudds · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 24.9 points, with 78.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 33.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenna Sudds Elected | Liberal | 45,244 | 60.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Greg Kung | Conservative | 26,557 | 35.4 | Paramedic |
| Melissa Simon | NDP | 1,702 | 2.3 | Small Business Owner |
| Jennifer Purdy | Green | 835 | 1.1 | Family Physician |
| Moinuddin Siddiqui | Other | 122 | 0.2 | Transit Dispatcher |
| Other candidates | 460 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Carleton Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean Liberal, safe seat
- Nepean Liberal, safe seat
- Hull—Aylmer Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa South Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated