Hull—Aylmer

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 42.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	Bloc	NDP
Hull—Aylmer	62.2%	19.4%	12.0%	4.5%
Provincial averageQuebec	43.6%+18.7	24.2%−4.8	27.3%−15.3	5.7%−1.2
National averageCanada	47.0%+15.2	30.4%−11.0	6.3%+5.7	11.8%−7.3

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 65.1% English 25.9% Other languages 9.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Greg Fergus · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 44.7 points, with 69.4% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 42.8 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Greg Fergus Elected	Liberal	31,978	61.5	Parliamentarian
Jill Declare	Conservative	8,727	16.8	Member's Assistant - Director of Administration
Alice Grondin	Bloc	6,248	12.0	Student
Pascale Matecki	NDP	2,855	5.5	Program Manager
Frédéric Morin-Paquette	Green	1,130	2.2	Teacher
Jean-Jacques Desgranges	PPC	341	0.7	Lawyer
Alexandre Deschênes	Other	208	0.4	Professional Artist
Other candidates		518	1.0

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.