Gatineau

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 39.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	Bloc	NDP
Gatineau	60.6%	21.2%	16.2%	3.8%
Provincial averageQuebec	43.6%+17.1	24.2%−3.0	27.3%−11.1	5.7%−1.9
National averageCanada	47.0%+13.6	30.4%−9.2	6.3%+9.9	11.8%−8.0

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 85.8% English 9.2% Other languages 5.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Steven MacKinnon · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 41.0 points, with 68.1% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 39.4 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Steven MacKinnon Elected	Liberal	34,751	59.9	Parliamentarian
Kethlande Pierre	Conservative	10,982	18.9	Assistant Director
Richard Nadeau	Bloc	9,373	16.2	Retired
Daniel Simoncic	NDP	1,615	2.8	Entrepreneur
Mathieu Saint-Jean	PPC	505	0.9	Public Servant
Pierre Soublière	Other	173	0.3	Retired
Other candidates		635	1.1

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.