Ottawa South

Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 46.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
Ottawa South	64.6%	18.1%	5.5%	1.6%
Provincial averageOntario	48.6%+16.0	34.4%−16.3	5.4%+0.1	1.8%−0.2
National averageCanada	47.0%+17.6	30.4%−12.3	11.8%−6.3	2.4%−0.8

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 7.4% English 72.8% Other languages 19.8%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

David McGuinty · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 37.8 points, with 69.2% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 46.5 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
David McGuinty Elected	Liberal	43,388	64.7	Parliamentarian
Blair Turner	Conservative	18,010	26.9	Police Officer
Hena Masjedee	NDP	4,017	6.0	Federal Public Servant
Nira Dookeran	Green	642	1.0	Retired
Alex Perrier	Other	259	0.4	Grocery Clerk
William Cooper	Other	155	0.2	Small Business Owner
John Redins	Other	93	0.1	50
Other candidates		507	0.8

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.