Orléans
Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 47.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orléans | 66.9% | 19.1% | 4.6% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+18.3 | 34.4%−15.4 | 5.4%−0.8 | 1.8%−0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+19.9 | 30.4%−11.3 | 11.8%−7.2 | 2.1%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Marie-France Lalonde · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 39.2 points, with 76.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 47.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-France Lalonde Elected | Liberal | 53,146 | 67.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Steve Mansour | Conservative | 22,072 | 27.8 | Law Student |
| Oulai B. Goué | NDP | 2,063 | 2.6 | Teacher |
| Jaycob Jacques | Green | 652 | 0.8 | Mobilizer |
| Tafiqul Abu Mohammad | PPC | 331 | 0.4 | Realtor |
| Arlo Arrowsmith | Other | 301 | 0.4 | Claims Agent |
| Mazhar Choudhry | Independent | 162 | 0.2 | Software Architect |
| Arabella Vida | Independent | 76 | 0.1 | Ethan Vida Organization Officer |
| Other candidates | 543 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Liberal, safe seat
- Gatineau Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa South Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Hull—Aylmer Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated