Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester
Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 54.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester | 66.6% | 12.5% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+18.0 | 34.4%−21.9 | 5.4%+0.5 | 1.8%+0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+19.6 | 30.4%−17.9 | 11.8%−5.9 | 2.4%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Mona Fortier · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 45.4 points, with 69.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 54.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mona Fortier Elected | Liberal | 45,934 | 66.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Dean Wythe | Conservative | 14,633 | 21.2 | Senior Policy Advisor |
| Tristan Oliff | NDP | 5,164 | 7.5 | Management Consultant |
| Christian Proulx | Green | 1,345 | 2.0 | Construction |
| Marty Simms | PPC | 349 | 0.5 | Independent Consultant |
| Coreen Corcoran | Other | 338 | 0.5 | System Analyst |
| Elizabeth Benoit | Independent | 238 | 0.3 | Public Servant |
| Christian Legeais | Other | 182 | 0.3 | Documentalist |
| Other candidates | 704 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gatineau Liberal, safe seat
- Hull—Aylmer Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Orléans Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa South Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated