Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes
Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 89%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes | 43.5% | 40.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−5.0 | 34.4%+6.1 | 5.4%−2.2 | 1.8%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−3.5 | 30.4%+10.2 | 11.8%−8.6 | 2.1%−0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Michael Barrett · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 5.6 points, with 73.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 3.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Barrett Elected | Conservative | 33,437 | 49.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Lorna Jean Edmonds | Liberal | 29,656 | 44.2 | Retired |
| Paul Lancione | NDP | 2,341 | 3.5 | Client Advisor |
| Randi Ramdeen | Green | 781 | 1.2 | Political Organizer |
| Hailey Simpson | PPC | 596 | 0.9 | Marketing Assistant |
| Other candidates | 359 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lanark—Frontenac Liberal, toss-up
- Kingston and the Islands Liberal, safe seat
- Carleton Liberal, safe seat
- Nepean Liberal, safe seat
- Kanata Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa West—Nepean Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated