Lanark—Frontenac
Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 75%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanark—Frontenac | 44.7% | 40.9% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−3.9 | 34.4%+6.4 | 5.4%−2.3 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−2.4 | 30.4%+10.5 | 11.8%−8.7 | 2.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Scott Reid · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 4.8 points, with 75.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 3.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Reid Elected | Conservative | 34,186 | 50.1 | Historian |
| Michelle Foxton | Liberal | 30,900 | 45.3 | Lawyer |
| Danielle Rae | NDP | 1,986 | 2.9 | Legal Assistant |
| Jesse Pauley | Green | 741 | 1.1 | Software Engineer |
| Other candidates | 463 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Liberal, toss-up
- Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Conservative, toss-up
- Carleton Liberal, safe seat
- Kingston and the Islands Liberal, safe seat
- Kanata Liberal, safe seat
- Nepean Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated