Bay of Quinte
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay of Quinte | 49.6% | 36.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+1.0 | 34.4%+1.8 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+2.6 | 30.4%+5.8 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Chris Malette · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 5.7 points, with 69.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 13.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Malette Elected | Liberal | 32,846 | 50.1 | Municipal Councillor |
| Ryan Williams | Conservative | 29,130 | 44.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Kate Crothers | NDP | 2,373 | 3.6 | Interior Designer |
| Erica Charlton | Green | 833 | 1.3 | Operations Coordinator |
| Other candidates | 353 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Northumberland—Clarke Liberal, toss-up
- Kingston and the Islands Liberal, safe seat
- Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Conservative, toss-up
- Peterborough Liberal, safe seat
- Lanark—Frontenac Liberal, toss-up
- Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands—Rideau Lakes Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated