Nipissing—Timiskaming
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nipissing—Timiskaming | 46.4% | 35.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%−2.2 | 34.4%+0.8 | 5.4%−1.6 | 1.8%+0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−0.6 | 30.4%+4.8 | 11.8%−8.0 | 2.1%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Pauline Rochefort · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 2.6 points, with 69.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 11.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pauline Rochefort Elected | Liberal | 27,674 | 47.0 | Mayor |
| Garry Keller | Conservative | 26,121 | 44.4 | Consultant |
| Valerie Kennedy | NDP | 3,548 | 6.0 | Transportation Coordinator |
| John Janssen | PPC | 648 | 1.1 | Information Technology |
| Louise Poitras | Green | 585 | 1.0 | Gardener |
| Other candidates | 267 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sudbury Liberal, safe seat
- Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Liberal, toss-up
- Abitibi—Témiscamingue Bloc, safe seat
- Parry Sound—Muskoka Conservative, toss-up
- Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Conservative, safe seat
- Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated