Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 24.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi | 54.8% | 30.0% | 10.2% | 4.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+11.3 | 24.2%+5.8 | 27.3%−17.1 | 5.7%−1.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.8 | 30.4%−0.4 | 6.3%+3.9 | 11.8%−7.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Sophie Chatel · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 26.7 points, with 69.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 24.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Chatel Elected | Liberal | 32,088 | 54.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Brian Nolan | Conservative | 16,221 | 27.3 | Senior Project Officer |
| Suzanne Proulx | Bloc | 6,071 | 10.2 | Manager |
| Gilbert W. Whiteduck | NDP | 2,971 | 5.0 | Mental Health and Addictions Counsellor |
| Claude Bertrand | Green | 749 | 1.3 | Retired |
| Todd Hoffman | PPC | 673 | 1.1 | Brewer |
| Other candidates | 583 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Conservative, safe seat
- Laurentides—Labelle Bloc, safe seat
- Gatineau Liberal, safe seat
- Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation Liberal, safe seat
- Hull—Aylmer Liberal, safe seat
- Kanata Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated