Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 20.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Bloc | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation | 47.6% | 26.6% | 22.5% | 3.7% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 43.6%+4.0 | 24.2%+2.4 | 27.3%−4.8 | 5.7%−2.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+0.6 | 30.4%−3.8 | 6.3%+16.2 | 11.8%−8.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Stéphane Lauzon · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 22.4 points, with 64.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 20.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stéphane Lauzon Elected | Liberal | 28,124 | 46.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Martin Charron | Conservative | 14,697 | 24.5 | Self-Employed |
| Martin Héroux | Bloc | 13,520 | 22.5 | Comedian |
| Michel Welt | NDP | 1,499 | 2.5 | Medical Doctor |
| Bertha Fuchsman-Small | Green | 807 | 1.3 | Retired |
| Lindsey Therrien | PPC | 586 | 1.0 | Public Servant |
| Other candidates | 823 | 1.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Liberal, safe seat
- Orléans Liberal, safe seat
- Gatineau Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Liberal, safe seat
- Hull—Aylmer Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa South Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated