Prescott—Russell—Cumberland
Federal riding · Ontario · Ottawa region
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prescott—Russell—Cumberland | 53.8% | 30.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 48.6%+5.2 | 34.4%−3.6 | 5.4%−2.5 | 1.8%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+6.8 | 30.4%+0.5 | 11.8%−8.9 | 2.1% |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Giovanna Mingarelli · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 14.3 points, with 75.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 22.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giovanna Mingarelli Elected | Liberal | 39,110 | 54.4 | Entrepreneur |
| Julie Séguin | Conservative | 28,805 | 40.1 | Executive Policy Officer |
| Ryder Finlay | NDP | 1,730 | 2.4 | Administrative Assistant |
| Thaila Riden | Green | 787 | 1.1 | Stay-at-Home Parent |
| Deborah Perrier | PPC | 725 | 1.0 | Administrative Clerk |
| Jason St-Louis | Independent | 236 | 0.3 | Driving Instructor |
| Other candidates | 527 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Orléans Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa South Liberal, safe seat
- Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry Conservative, safe seat
- Gatineau Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated