Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry
Federal riding · Ontario · Peel and Halton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stormont—Dundas—Glengarry | 46.8% | 38.9% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+12.3 | 48.6%−9.7 | 5.4%−2.4 | 1.8%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+16.4 | 47.0%−8.1 | 11.8%−8.9 | 2.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Eric Duncan · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 16.5 points, with 68.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 7.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Duncan Elected | Conservative | 37,399 | 56.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Sarah Good | Liberal | 26,407 | 39.5 | Engagement |
| Mario Leclerc | NDP | 1,653 | 2.5 | Paralegal |
| Gordon Kubanek | Green | 674 | 1.0 | Retired Teacher |
| Karl Ivan MacKinnon | Other | 274 | 0.4 | Dairy Worker |
| Other candidates | 413 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Prescott—Russell—Cumberland Liberal, safe seat
- Orléans Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa South Liberal, safe seat
- Beauharnois—Salaberry—Soulanges—Huntingdon Bloc, safe seat
- Vaudreuil Liberal, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier—Gloucester Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated