Laurentides—Labelle

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 7%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Bloc	Liberal	Conservative	NDP
Laurentides—Labelle	44.2%	35.1%	15.8%	5.6%
Provincial averageQuebec	27.3%+16.9	43.6%−8.4	24.2%−8.4	5.7%−0.1
National averageCanada	6.3%+37.9	47.0%−11.9	30.4%−14.6	11.8%−6.2

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 95.3% English 4.2% Other languages 0.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Marie-Hélène Gaudreau · Bloc

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Bloc Québécois won by 9.5 points, with 65.5% turnout.

Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 9.1 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Marie-Hélène Gaudreau Elected	Bloc	23,615	43.8	Parliamentarian
Emrick Vienneau	Liberal	18,514	34.4	Operations and Communications Assistant
Daniel Paquette	Conservative	7,900	14.7	Entrepreneur
Michel Noël De Tilly	NDP	1,341	2.5	Retired Physiotherapist
Michel Le Comte	Green	864	1.6	Naturopath
Amélie Charbonneau	PPC	749	1.4	Administrative Assistant
Other candidates		896	1.7

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.