Joliette—Manawan
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Bloc | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joliette—Manawan | 48.8% | 31.4% | 16.1% | 5.5% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.3%+21.5 | 43.6%−12.1 | 24.2%−8.1 | 5.7%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 6.3%+42.5 | 47.0%−15.6 | 30.4%−14.3 | 11.8%−6.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Gabriel Ste-Marie · Bloc
Previous election (2025)
The Bloc Québécois won by 17.7 points, with 64.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 17.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Ste-Marie Elected | Bloc | 28,196 | 48.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Marc Allaire | Liberal | 17,890 | 30.7 | Teacher |
| Pascal Bapfou Vozang Siewe | Conservative | 8,721 | 15.0 | CPA, Government of Canada |
| Vanessa Gordon | NDP | 1,408 | 2.4 | Professor |
| Érica Poirier | Green | 1,014 | 1.7 | Computer Programmer-Analyst |
| Other candidates | 1,087 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Berthier—Maskinongé Bloc, competitive
- Les Pays-d'en-Haut Liberal, toss-up
- Laurentides—Labelle Bloc, safe seat
- Montcalm Bloc, safe seat
- Rivière-du-Nord Bloc, safe seat
- Repentigny Bloc, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated