Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke
Federal riding · Ontario · Eastern Ontario
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke | 46.2% | 37.0% | 3.3% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.4%+11.8 | 48.6%−11.6 | 5.4%−2.1 | 1.8%−0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+15.8 | 47.0%−10.0 | 11.8%−8.6 | 2.4%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Cheryl Gallant · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 17.8 points, with 72.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 9.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheryl Gallant Elected | Conservative | 37,333 | 55.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Cyndi Mills | Liberal | 25,338 | 37.6 | Business Owner |
| Eileen Jones-Whyte | NDP | 2,469 | 3.7 | Teacher |
| Randy Briand | Other | 909 | 1.3 | Retired Teacher |
| Danilo Velasquez | Green | 618 | 0.9 | Customer Support Specialist |
| Seth Malina | Independent | 229 | 0.3 | Student |
| Stefan Klietsch | Independent | 122 | 0.2 | Call Centre Agent |
| Other candidates | 370 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Hastings—Lennox and Addington—Tyendinaga Conservative, toss-up
- Lanark—Frontenac Liberal, toss-up
- Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Liberal, safe seat
- Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes Conservative, safe seat
- Kanata Liberal, safe seat
- Carleton Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated