Abitibi—Témiscamingue
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Bloc | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi—Témiscamingue | 49.0% | 27.3% | 20.5% | 6.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.3%+21.7 | 43.6%−16.2 | 24.2%−3.7 | 5.7%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 6.3%+42.7 | 47.0%−19.7 | 30.4%−9.9 | 11.8%−5.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Sébastien Lemire · Bloc
Previous election (2025)
The Bloc Québécois won by 22.0 points, with 62.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 21.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sébastien Lemire Elected | Bloc | 24,774 | 48.6 | Public Relations Specialist |
| Jonathan Andresen | Liberal | 13,551 | 26.6 | Vice President of Marketing |
| Steve Tardif | Conservative | 9,861 | 19.3 | Mechanic |
| Jérémie Juneau | NDP | 1,480 | 2.9 | Operator |
| Vincent Palin-Bussières | Other | 449 | 0.9 | Musician |
| Other candidates | 850 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nipissing—Timiskaming Liberal, safe seat
- Pontiac—Kitigan Zibi Liberal, safe seat
- Sudbury Liberal, safe seat
- Sudbury East—Manitoulin—Nickel Belt Liberal, toss-up
- Algonquin—Renfrew—Pembroke Conservative, safe seat
- Parry Sound—Muskoka Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated